Unlike science, technology often seems to have a mind of its own. Betamax was better than VHS, but the latter won (in the US); now both are dead. No OS today is more stable than that old DEC OS, but even the company DEC is gone with its 100K+ employees. New cars full of chips have a lot more things that can go wrong with them than my old 52 Pontiac, and I’m no longer able to fix anything in the former because of their complexity.

Publishing technology moves at a slower pace because readers are often traditionalists, so they’re loathe to try new media. Readership demographics is more a determinant about how fast the march of technology influences publishing, of course. The spectrum going from young to old readers correlates well with the spectrum of preferences for reading media: older readers tend to prefer print format; younger ones ebooks. (Audiobooks apparently have their own spectrum, and it likely correlates well with commuting times and not so much with demographics.)

Disposable income factors in too: print versions cost more than ebooks, at least for self-publishing. (Traditional publishers attempt to skew those stats, charging almost as much for the ebook version of a blockbuster as the print version, although they’ve been attacking self-publishing by selling “evergreen versions” of old blockbusters at competitive prices compared to recently self-published ebooks.)

Many older readers won’t read ebooks or listen to audiobooks; they prefer print formats. I was thinking about this as I struggled to read President Obama’s A Promised Land, a weighty gift and not only for its prose—it probably weighs ten times what my Kindle weighs! It’s an epic book, to be sure, but it would lose nothing in ebook format. Yet gift-givers are traditionalists too—and maybe with good reason? It’s hard to wrap an ebook!

So publishing technology changes slowly, but it changes. That said, what exists on the future horizon for publishing?

The first obvious change will have less to do with media and more with those who produce it. Self-publishing, whether 100% DIY or partial, will be the asteroid that turns traditional publishing into a dinosaur except for coffee-table books non-readers proudly display as home decorations. That’s inevitable as more and more authors become fed up with traditional publishing’s delays, sycophantic agents and irascible, prejudiced editors, and, above all, royalties that are laughable. (Forget the advances. Few traditionally published authors besides the old and privileged mares and stallions in the big conglomerates stables receive them.)

That will be the catalyst for the second change (or it might be the other way around): Traditional publishers dependence on print will hasten their demise. We know brick-and-mortar bookstores are hurting: When was the last time you spent hours in one browsing among the stacks, elbow to elbow with other book lovers? Like everything else, people are now buying books online, even before COVID, and that’s a lot easier to do with ebooks. Print versions require shipping infrastructure, from the USPS, which no longer is dependable, thanks to you-know-who, or some other shipper. At the very least, that represents a significant delay compared to simply downloading an ebook. Waiting is so 20^th century; instant gratification is demanded in the 21^st.

Another format that will kill traditional publishing is the audiobook format. Anyone can make them. Sure, traditional publishers might have the advantage now because they can pay for the expensive narrators, those famous voices taking time from making cartoons to make some big bucks reading some big books, but how long can traditional publishers keep doing that? I’ll bet that self-publishers will find new and better voices—you don’t have to be a Hollywood star (or should I say a streaming-video hack?) to own a pleasant reading voice. And these new voices will get their opportunity as traditional publishing’s control of the book business shrinks to nothing.

This evolution will be slow, but will it be good or bad? The march of technology is neither per se—it’s indifferent. And it is what consumers want in the end, no matter how much traditional publishers try to mold readers’ attitudes and scam them with expensive advertising and other hype. Maybe robocalls in the future?

And it’s also possible that storytelling will die along with books, bookstores, and traditional publishers, because readership will dwindle to nothing. I’d hate to see storytelling reduced to the drivel found in streaming video, but I won’t have to suffer with that. I’ll be long gone before that happens. You and I might be more worried for our children and grandchildren, though. If human beings lose the art of good storytelling, can they really be called Homo sapiens, emphasis on sapiens? In a thousand years, that question probably won’t matter. In 2050, it might be more important—just think of Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 as autocrats strive to control us even more, telling us what we can say…and read.

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Comments are always welcome.

A Time Traveler’s Guide through the Multiverse. I like to think of this sci-fi rom-com as Douglas Adams’ guide done right. At least time travel is done right and might just be possible. And the time-traveler’s wife is the kick-ass physicist who invents the process! If you missed my guide, you’ll want to rectify that situation, as applied physicist Gail and her techie Jeff develop a process that allows them to jump around various universes in the Multiverse. Robots, ETs, dystopias, and apocalypses await the reader on this incredibly far-out roller coaster ride. Also available at Smashwords and wherever quality ebooks are sold (iBooks, B&N, Kobo, etc.).

Around the world and to the stars! In libris libertas!

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