Putin vs Obama…
Northern Ireland is playing host to a high-stakes sporting event: Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama will see verbal combat in a heavyweight bout. Neither one is John Wayne’s “Quiet Man.” Neither combatant likes the other. This time, Maureen O’Hara’s role will be played by Bashar al-Assad. The stakes are high because Russia and the U.S. have been posturing and fighting in the Middle East for over fifty years, and neither one has delivered a knock-out blow.
Proud Putin is between a rock and a hard place these days. The rock is the U.S. with its huge economy and Yankee ingenuity. The hard place is China, whose leaders have morphed Mao’s brand of communism (never a copy of the Kremlin’s) into a fascist capitalism that’s engine for another huge economy. How successful the latter will be in the long-run is an interesting question, but Putin’s immediate problem is how to turn Russia’s failed economy run by him and the rest of the Kremlin oligarchy into something positive before things get out of hand.
The Russian people traditionally help their inept leaders by suffering in silence and feeling paranoia toward both East and West. Historically, they have reasons to feel this way. The men all too often seek remedy from a Vodka bottle while the women all too often carry the load. It’s a dark, alien society that ex-KGB member Putin is well-equipped to manipulate…up to a certain point. His cunning is far superior to his muscular pecs and flat abs, the latter only serving as evidence for a narcissistic personality. He is a small man with much in common with other small men—Napoleon and Hitler, for example.
While I blame the Russian people for being so tolerant of despots, the Syrian crisis is a proxy war that endangers world peace, as if we needed more such crises. Putin is supporting Assad; Obama is supporting the rebels. You would think that we’re on the right side because Assad’s forces have used sarin gas against the rebels, if you believe the Obama administration, but some of the rebel forces are too cozy with al Qaeda—again, if you believe the Obama administration. Putin’s choices are easier than Obama’s. Tyrant Assad is cut from the same cloth as tyrant Putin. Perhaps the Syrian dictator is not as narcissistic and certainly isn’t a short fellow, but his father evidently taught him well.
Obama knows history. Russia’s example of how popular movements (the Russian revolution) can turn into murderous, authoritarian states (the U.S.S.R.) is bound to make him pause. Iran provides a more recent example where the U.S. actually overturned a democratically elected government. For all practical purposes, there’s not much difference between a murderous oligarchy (Russia) and a murderous theocracy (Iran), but what Syria will become with or without Assad is up in the air. The U.S. and its allies must move with the utmost care. It’s better to walk on the safe side than on the wild side. 90,000+ dead in Syria is a tragedy, but we don’t want to compound it.
Of course, it doesn’t help that Putin is such a scurrilous dog. I’ve been waiting for him to start barking out taunts about how the U.S. is so much in decline that NASA now depends on Russian rockets to take its astronauts to the International Space Station. While such taunts would be deserved in this case, Putin knows the value of propaganda in what could be considered the New Cold War with the U.S. He used it effectively to make the U.S. take its missiles out of Europe and leave Europeans in an ambivalent state of mind about where their loyalties lie (never mind the fact that they have been unable to defend themselves for over one hundred years).
Putin will also make propaganda-hay out of Edward Snowden’s leaks that point to the U.S.’ spying on its allies. Never mind that this is justified historically—for example, via the Pollard case. There is only one truth out there nowadays: In international diplomacy, no one can be trusted. Every nation, so-called ally or foe, is vying for economic dominance. Putin, of course, would just be the pot calling the kettle black, because he and the Russian spymasters who inherited his KGB job, will spy on anyone who strikes their fancy. The sleeper cell discovered in my hometown offers ample evidence at how ineffective the Russians are—any information they gained from many years of spying hasn’t helped their economy at all.
No, it’s a dog-eat-dog economic world and Putin knows he’s the little terrier on the scene—lots of bark but no bite. China is the great dane, sluggish but often strong, while the U.S. is the border collie, smaller and wiser, trying to herd the stumbling giants of the world. Who barks the loudest is irrelevant. But the little terrier can nip at the others’ heels. In their annoyance, they can make mistakes. Hopefully, Syria won’t be one of those. We participated in Libya’s Arab spring with just air support and still took a hit for our efforts. We participated more fully in Afghanistan and Iraq and still are licking our wounds. Each country is different. I’m glad I’m not in Obama’s shoes.
And so it goes…
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