Maybe I’m just a pessimistic old curmudgeon, but it seems to me that the real losers in an election, federal, state, or local, are the voters, the American public.  Here are some scenarios and some reasons.

Elections are generally close, unless a candidate is running unopposed (alas, that often happens in states of one color or the other, or in “safe districts” the politicos have gerrymandered in such a way that an opposition candidate has no chance).  By close, I’m talking about winning margins of sometimes just hundreds of votes on a local level and just thousands for a national office.  Majorities are too often simple.  There are no mandates.

Some people would just say, “That shows the two-party system is alive and well.”  Maybe.  But with our national discourse so polarized, the problem is exacerbated.  The two parties are strong, pander to their own base, and insult each other.  There are politicians who step above the fray, for example, the imminently sage and reasonable Colin Powell, a Republican who endorsed Obama.  He stands in stark contrast relative to daffy Donald Trump whose “October surprise” was yet another attack on Obama’s race and claim to U.S. citizenship.

Hence, you have races that are also polarized to the extreme.  How can Wisconsin elect someone like Ryan?  How can a sexist-you-know-what like Mourdock dare to define rape yet again for women?  Here’s my take:  this election is not even about candidates or parties.  It’s about old white blue collar guys, especially if they’ve been laid off or have had to take jobs with lower pay, getting even.  They overwhelmingly support Romney (and belong to the Tea Party fringe of the GOP).  On the other side, you have women, who are tired of old white guys—or guys of any color, for that matter—trying to control them, from health issues to receiving equal pay for equal work.

Right there you have about a 50-50 split.  In so many other demographics, the same thing happens.  People who are either bigots or unsure of their own sexuality are against same-sex marriage; others are not.  Leads to that 50-50 split.  People who feel threatened in their jobs by immigrants, undocumented or otherwise, want the whole immigration to go away; others believe it has to be solved.  Another 50-50 split.

Add up all these polarizing issues and 50-50 splits and you see why elections are close.  But that’s not why the American public loses in the long run.  It’s because this polarization carries right into Congress, at least when our senators and reps aren’t kissing the you-know-what of lobbyists and special interests.  If X becomes President (X is Obama or Romney), do you think it will be any different?  Not if there’s a Democratic Senate and a GOP House!  Nothing, nada, zilch—that’s what will get done.  Moreover, the party that loses the White House will be in revenge mode, just as the House GOP has been during the last two years with Obama.

It used to be true that a candidate had to move to the middle to become president.  Obama is already there and Romney pretends to be, so much so that Obama in that first debate kept looking at his notes, trying to figure out who that guy was on the stage next to him.  My thesis is that it doesn’t make a bit of difference where the President is on the political spectrum.  If we have a do-nothing Congress mired in political gridlock, nothing will get done.  That’s why the American public loses elections.

Several scenarios are possible in this election, because it’s so close.  The most extreme case:  Obama, 269 electoral votes, Romney, 269.  The election goes to Congress.  The House makes Romney President and the Senate makes Biden his VP.  Mathematically possible, but not as likely as one candidate winning the Electoral College and the other the popular vote.  Even if neither scenario plays out, the closeness of the election might imply recounts into December.

It doesn’t make any difference.  If status quo is maintained in both houses of Congress, nothing will get done.  If it’s not maintained, it can get worse—it’s possible both House and Senate are equally divided.  I can’t imagine that anything can be as bad as the last two years, but I suppose it could.  The American public can lose in bigger ways.

One can always hope.  Express that hope by voting.  It’s your civic duty and a right that people in some countries don’t have.  Let’s hope it’s a clean election, that there are clear winners at all levels.  Only in that way will the American public win and government gridlock lose.

And so it goes….

[Note:  This is the last op-ed piece you will see from me until after the election.  Almost everyone receives via snail-mail or has access to a document from their local election board listing the candidates and referendums he or she will be voting on.  Read it diligently, away from the shouts, negative ads, and finger-pointing.  Then go and vote.  It’s a fundamental right everyone should cherish.  It’s also a right that deserves a bit of thought and nourishment from every voter.  It doesn’t matter if you’re a red guy or gal in a blue state, or vice versa, because your vote can influence local elections, the breeding grounds for national politicos.  Stop the nonsense at the local level and you’ll stop it at the national level twenty years down the road.]

 

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 1st, 2012 at 4:00 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.