Drake, Fermi, and SETI…
[Note from Steve: Frank Drake, the father of the SETI program and much of radio astronomy, passed away last week at 92. He was director of the Arecibo Observatory from 1971 to 1981. Consider this post my feeble attempt to honor this great man.]
I felt sad when I read about the demise of the Arecibo radio telescope, and even sadder when I learned about Frank Drake’s passing. When I attended a conference at the Universidad de Puerto Rico in Mayaguez years ago (1970s)—it’s on the opposite side of the island from San Juan—we stopped on the way there to take a tour of that facility. It filled an entire valley and filled me with pride that human beings, scientists like me (at the time), could create such an awesome structure dedicated to exploring the Universe. At that time, Arecibo was a principal center for radio astronomy. Not only was it an important place for probing the radio part of the electromagnetic spectrum, it was also the home of SETI, a program whose goal was to search for signs of intelligent life in the Universe, presumably originating in radio signals emitted by other civilizations in the cosmos.
Frank Drake and others began that search. Fermi, the last physicist who worked in both the theoretical and experimental sides of physics, once asked the taunting question, “Where are they?” He was referring to ETs, of course. SETI was designed to answer that question. With both Arecibo and SETI gone, one has to wonder who’s trying to answer it now, especially considering all the exoplanets that have been discovered since Arecibo was built.
Of course, searches for ET life with radio signals depend on ET civilizations existing “out there” that broadcast in that narrow band of the electromagnetic spectrum. Drake’s famous equation enters into that argument: Depending on the values assigned to the terms in the equation, the likelihood of such a civilization existing can be estimated. I haven’t seen any scientists revisiting this equation and adjusting the terms according to how many exoplanets have been found. Perhaps they should?
Of course, there are other ways for such civilizations to signal us. In A. B. Carolan’s Origins, the ETs are here on Earth, and they are us. In More than Human: The Mensa Contagion, I considered the possibility of interstellar probes launched by such a civilization looking for a new home. In other words, the ETs came to us, an unusual “first contact.” In Sing a Zamba Galactica, #2 in the ebook bundle, The Chaos Chronicles Trilogy Collection (see below), I assumed that we’d discover the ETs by traveling “out there.” (In that novel, the “first contact” was with friendly ETs. I also included the ubiquitous alien invasion later in the book!)
Sci-fi writers often avoid Fermi’s question completely. In Isaac Asimov’s sci-fi universe, found in the Foundation series, there are no ETs! There’s a lot of good sci-fi without ETs (rarely of the variety known as “space opera,” e.g. Star Wars, that invariably contains ETs), so one can’t really criticize Asimov.
I guess we won’t have an answer to Fermi’s question for a long time, if ever. Frank Drake tried to answer it with the tools he had available. As exciting as recent developments have been (exoplanets and black holes, Space-X and new NASA programs, and instrumentation advances like the Hubble and Webb telescopes), we’re probably centuries away from sending expeditions to even the nearest planetary systems. (Such expeditions were limited to nearby Sol-type stars in the first two novels of the “Chaos Chronicles,” where “nearby” still means tens of light-years!)
Of course, it’s always possible that ETs will visit us as they do in More than Human or Origins. In the first novel, we’re descended from them in a sense. In the second, they came without knowing Earth already had tenants. Then the answer to Fermi’s question is simple: They’re here!
In any case, his question could be unanswerable except via sci-fi. And whether they ever come to Earth or we go out there, only the ruins of civilizations might be found because they’ve destroyed themselves. Right now, it seems we might be headed that way ourselves!
***
Comments are always welcome. (Please follow the rules listed on my “Join the Conversation” web page. If you don’t, your comment is classified as spam.)
The Chaos Chronicles Trilogy Collection. This special 99-cent sale at Smashwords is better than my previous ones! This ebook bundle contains three novels: Survivors of the Chaos, Sing a Zamba Galactica, and Come Dance a Cumbia…with Stars in Your Hand! You start your mind-blowing journey on a future Earth run by international mega-corporations and policed by their mercenaries, but a clever director of the interplanetary space agency refurbishes three long-haul space rigs and uses them to send colonists off to nearby stars. Those colonies become the salvation for humanity as human beings team up with good ETs to battle bad ones…and a collective super-intelligence that’s a bit ambivalent as a villain. But the worst enemy, a human, is yet to come; if this is my Foundation trilogy, he’s my Mule. Spanning thousands of years of future near-Earth history, these adventures in space and time will give you hours of sci-fi mysteries and thrills.
Around the world and to the stars! In libris libertas!
